The Debate Expectations Dance

September 28, 2012, 1:14 pm

By TRIP GABRIEL

BOSTON - Ripping the stuffing out of your opponent means it is another day on the campaign trail.

But suddenly changing course to praise the other guy's experience, know-how and oratorical brilliance can mean only one thing: Presidential debates are coming up, and it is time to lower expectations for your campaign and raise the bar for your opponent. This way viewers will be unexpectedly surprised and score your candidate the winner.

Thus on Thursday did a senior adviser to Mitt Romney declare President Obama “a uniquely gifted speaker” and “one of the most talented political communicators in modern history.''

The adviser, Beth Myers, wrote in a memo to Republican surrogates that for Mr . Obama the first debate with Mr. Romney on Wednesday “will be the eighth one-on-one presidential debate of his political career.”

“For Mitt Romney, it will be his first,” she added in the memo, first obtained by CNN.

Do not try selling that story to Mr. Obama's team. The president's senior adviser David Axelrod made excuses that Mr. Obama has been too busy running the country to prepare for a debate and painted a gloomy scenario.

“First, just as he was in the primaries, we expect Mitt Romney to be a prepared, disciplined and aggressive debater,” Mr. Axelrod wrote in a memo on Friday to “interested parties.” “Second, debates - and particularly the first debate - generally favor challengers. Five out of the last six challengers were perceived to win the first debate against an incumbent president.”

Twisting the knife of sky-high expectations, Mr. Axelrod added, “Maybe this is why the Romney campaign has so confidently predicted for months that he will turn in a campaign-changing performance such as Ronald Reagan's in 1980.”

Jim Messina, Mr. Obama's campaign manager, wrote in a memo last week of Mr. Romney, “He's quick, polished and ready with a punch attack against the president.”

And Jennifer Granholm, the former Michigan governor who fired up Democrats at their convention last month, was suddenly not so optimistic this week, predicting flat-out “the president is going to lose the first debate next week.”

“Mark my words,” Ms. Granholm said on her Current TV show, “The War Room.” “First off, he's obviously a brilliant man, but the president is not a great debater. You know it, you saw him hemming and hawing in debates four years ago.”

It is enough to make one think both candidates are spending the days ticking down to the first of three debates, in Denver, cowering under their beds. Do not believe it. Both are burrowing into their studies like the overachievers each has always been. Mr. Obama plans to spend three days beginning Sunday hunkered down and preparing for the debate in Henderson, Nev., outside Las Vegas. And although Mr. Romney is already a seasoned veteran of 20 primary debates, he attended a presidential “debate camp” in Vermont while the Democrats held their national convention last month, and he conducted five mock debates over two days recently, according to reports.

Parodying the quadrennial habit of lowering expectations, Ben White of Politico wrote on Twitter on Thursday: “Pre-debate flak spin: ‘I'll just be happy if my guy doesn't vomit blood and flat out murder our opponent with an ax.' ”

The praise for opponents is no more sincere than Br'er Rabbit's pleas not to be tossed into the briar patch. In the same memos hailing their opponents, both campaign advisers went on to explain why no matter what happens in the debates, their candidate will ultimately trounce his opponent.

“This election will not be decided by the debates, however,” Ms. Myers wrote. “It will be decided by the American people. Regardless of who comes out on top in these debates, they know we can't afford another four years like the last four years.”

And from Mr. Axelrod: “But in this debate, Americans will not be holding a scorecard to see who lands the most punches or who is quickest with the snappy sound bite. They'll be focused on what they have been throughout this campaign â€" who's going to lay out the most credible plan to create good-paying jobs for the middle class and to restore economic security?”

But please, don't hit me so hard.