Surprise!
October has arrived, and with it, the specter of an “October Surprise†that might alter the political trajectory of the presidential campaign at the last minute.
In 1972, Henry Kissinger, the secretary of state under President Nixon, announced that “peace is at hand†in the Vietnam War just days before the election. In 1992, Caspar Weinberger, the defense secretary during the Reagan administration when George H. W. Bush was vice president, was implicated in the Iran-contra arms scandal four days before Mr. Bush lost the election to Bill Clinton. In 2004, Osama bin Laden released a video statement on Oct. 29.
Will such a surprise happen again? In 1980, the nation held its collective breath waiting for an October release of the Iranian hostages; it did not happen until hours after Ronald Reagan's inauguration. It is possible that October comes and goes this year without a pivotal moment.
But if it does come, here are five possibilities:
A DEBATE MOMENT President Obama and Mitt Romney will stand next to each other on a stage three times during October. Each one of those debates will provide an opportunity for an October Surprise that might change the trajectory of the 2012 campaign.
That surprise might come in the form of a gaffe that raises new questions about one of the men. Or it could be a surprise policy proposal offered as a Hail Mary pass to alter the political discussion. Or it could be a striking stylistic observation that changes the way voters assess the two candidates.
FOREIGN POLICY The events in Benghazi, Libya, in September were a vivid reminder of how quickly an event overseas can hijack the political ne ws cycle in America - and often rightly so. The Libyan situation is important in its own right, but so are the reactions to it by Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney.
What else could pop up on the world stage in October? More re-evaluations of the terrorist attack that killed the ambassador to Libya? Developments in the Iranian nuclear drama? Dramatic economic collapses in European nations already weakened and teetering? Something totally unexpected?
ECONOMIC STATISTICS Here at home, there will be one more opportunity in October for the government to report the jobless rate and other economic data. That will come at the end of this week, on Friday, Oct. 5. Will the unemployment rate go up again, hold steady, or tick down a bit? A slight change in either direction might not matter much, but a dramatic shift would definitely qualify as a potentially critical October Surprise.
There will be one more jobs report, on Nov. 2. But throughout October, the economy will be the single most important subject on the minds of voters. That means that a big gain or loss in the stock market could affect the election. So could big financial news affecting some of the country's largest institutions.
INVESTIGATIVE NEWS Journalists have already spent years delving into the backgrounds of Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama. But the digging continues, and there is still plenty of room for new revelations that could affect the outcome of the election.
In 2000, just days before the election, George W. Bush was forced to acknowledge that he had a drunken driving conviction in his past. That kind of personal information could yet emerge about one of the two current candidates. If it does, it could affect the small number of truly undecided voters.
For the two campaigns, both of which have elaborate opposition research departments, October is the last hope to peddle damaging information about the opponent.
UNRELATED INCIDENT Finally, there is always t he possibility that something happens in October that has no particular relevance to the election, but steals the spotlight, an event on par with July's shooting in Aurora, Colo., or a natural disaster like the Japanese earthquake.
Both campaigns expect to have the month of October to make their final appeals to voters. If an unrelated event consumes the attention of the news media and the American public, the campaigns will find it harder to break through with their closing messages.
