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Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Primaries to Watch in Florida and Wisconsin

By JENNIFER STEINHAUER

Voters head to the polls in four states Tuesday to winnow their picks for the House and Senate, and the addition of Representative Paul D. Ryan to the Republican ticket has the potential to add a new dynamic to some of the races.

In Florida, a face-off between two incumbents - a veteran Republican lawmaker and a Tea Party-blessed freshman - has captured the state's attention, while in Connecticut, a World Wrestling Entertainment executive is making her second run for a Senate seat, this one being vacated by Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, the Democrat turned independent.

Wisconsin may be abuzz about Mr. Ryan, but the state is also at the center of yet another battle between established and insurgent Republicans over a Senate seat, while in Minnesota, a race Tuesday will determine which Democrat will take on a potentially endangered Republican freshman.

Six months ago, it seemed that Tommy G. Thompson, the former governor of Wisconsin, had nothing to worry about in his race for the seat of Senator Herb Kohl, a Democrat who is retiring.

But in the same dynamic that has roiled several Republican primaries this year, Mr. Thompson has been forced to sweat it out against three challengers: Eric Hovde, a hedge fund manager who has poured millions of his own money into the race; a former congressman, Mark Neumann; and Jeff Fitzgerald, the State Assembly speaker who links himself to Gov. Scott Walker's conservative agenda.

Recent polls show Mr. Thompson with a modest advantage, and each candidate is hoping that something about Mr. Ryan will rub off on them in the primary. Indeed Mr. Ryan's mere mention of Mr. Thompson's record as governor over the weekend was quickly made into a last-minute radio ad by team Thompson.

Democrats are hoping that the tough primary, and the nomination of a more conservative candidate, will boost their candidate , Representative Tammy Baldwin, who may face a tougher race thanks to Mr. Ryan's ascent.

In House races, Democrats are eyeing two freshmen in Wisconsin â€" Representatives Sean Duffy, a bit of a protégée of Mr. Ryan, and Reid Ribble, a former roofer â€" as possible seat gains, but both incumbents are expected to prevail.

Moving to Minnesota, Democrats are vying for a chance to pick off a Republican House freshman, Representative Chip Cravaack, one of several key targets for Democrats this year.

Republicans tried to shore up the Eighth District for Mr. Cravaack, who, in perhaps the most striking example of the strength of the 2010 Republican wave, swept away an 18-term Democratic incumbent, James L. Oberstar. But Mr. Cravaack, a former commercial pilot, will be hammered in the general election both for his conservative voting record, which is out of step with some of the district, and for living some of the time in New Hampshire where his wife works.

< p>The Democrats who have fought â€" at times with rancor â€" to replace Mr. Cravaack are a former Duluth councilman, Jeff Anderson; a former state senator, Tarryl Clark; and a former congressman, Rick Nolan, who served in the House from 1975 to 1981. Expect the Republican Party to work overtime to help Mr. Cravaack stay in Congress.

Connecticut last seemed exciting politically in 2006, when Mr. Lieberman was forced to run as an independent after losing the Democratic primary, then prevailed to keep his seat. The excitement now is around the Republican primary, where a former House member, Christopher H. Shays, is facing off with the former wrestling executive Linda E. McMahon, who since 2010 has spent roughly $65 million on two races for the Senate. (She lost in 2010 to Richard Blumenthal, then the state attorney general.)

The winner is expected to face Representative Christopher S. Murphy, who appears far ahead of his Democratic primary challenger, former Secret ary of State Susan Bysiewicz, in the polls.

The general election already seems in full force in the Florida Senate race, where Representative Connie Mack is expected to beat challenges from Col. Mike McCalister, now retired from the Army, and former Representative Dave Weldon.

The Democratic incumbent they are trying to unseat, Senator Bill Nelson, has already spent money attacking Mr. Mack, including an advertisement in which he linked the congressman to the Hooters restaurant chain. The fortunes of both nominees may well be linked to the dynamics of the presidential campaign in this important swing state.

Perhaps the most interesting House primary, one begot by redistricting, is in Central Florida between Representative John L. Mica, a 10-termer who is chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, and Representative Sandy Adams, a freshman who is backed by Sarah Palin and Representative Allen B. West, Ms. Adams's fiery statemate and fellow freshman in Congress.

Ms. Adams, backed by the Tea Party, and Mr. Mica, a fan of earmarks, are two the most ideologically disparate candidates in a House primary right now, and their battle is similar to others that have divided the party.

Stay tuned. Or, rather, refresh.